Macroeconomic outlook
Macroeconomic outlook
The present Section contains projections and estimates of main macroeconomic indicators for Armenia, as well as other countries in the region and the global economy. Sources for projections and estimates are various: Government of Armenia, IMF, World Bank and other international organizations. It may also contain some estimates by independent agencies.
- Forecast of main macroeconomic indicators of Armenia
- Economic growth in Armenia and in neighboring countries
- Global economic growth forecasts
|
2013 |
2014 |
2015 |
2016 |
2017 |
||
| Actual | Budget 2014 |
MTEF 2015-2017 | ||||
|
GDP |
3.5 |
5.2 | 4.0 | 5.0 | 5.3 |
5.7 |
|
Inflation, average consumer prices |
5.8 |
5.5 |
3.0 |
4.0 | 4.0 |
4.0 |
|
Current account balance (% of GDP) |
-8.0 |
-8.6 |
-9.8 |
-8.5 | -7.9 |
-7.1 |
|
Exports of goods |
8.6 |
10.0 |
8.7 |
9.5 | 10.0 |
10.0 |
|
Imports of goods |
0.2 |
4.0 |
4.0 | 5.0 | 5.5 |
6.0 |
Աղյուսակ 1.2-2: IMF and ADB forecasts of Armenia's main macroeconomic indicators for 2014-2017, % change
|
2013 |
2014 |
2015 |
2016 |
2017 |
|||
| Actual | IMF |
ADB | IMF | ADB | IMF |
||
|
GDP |
3.5 |
3.2 |
3.8 |
3.5 | 4.6 | 3.7 |
4.1 |
|
Inflation, average consumer prices |
5.8 |
1.8 |
4.5 |
3.8 |
4.0 |
4.0 |
4.0 |
|
Current account balance (% of GDP) |
-8.0 |
-7.7 |
-8.7 |
-7.3 |
-8.0 |
-7.1 |
-6.8 |
|
Exports of goods |
8.6 |
6.8 |
6.2 |
5.3 |
6.5 |
4.7 |
4.5 |
|
Imports of goods |
0.2 |
3.3 |
3.5 |
4.4 |
4.3 |
4.0 |
3.7 |
|
2013 |
2014 |
2015 |
2016 |
2017 |
|||
| Actual | IMF | ADB | IMF | ADB | IMF | ||
|
GDP |
3.5 |
4.3 |
4.6 |
4.5 | 5.0 | 4.7 |
5.0 |
|
Inflation, average consumer prices |
5.8 |
5.0 |
4.5 |
4.0 |
4.0 |
4.0 |
4.0 |
|
Current account balance (% of GDP) |
-8.0 |
-7.2 |
-8.7 |
-6.8 |
-8.0 |
-6.6 |
-6.5 |
|
Exports of goods |
8.6 |
8.8 |
6.2 |
6.3 |
6.5 |
6.7 |
6.4 |
|
Imports of goods |
0.2 |
3.3 |
3.5 |
4.2 |
4.3 |
4.6 |
4.5 |
| 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | |||
| Actual | Budget 2013 |
MTEF 2014-2016 |
MTEF 2014-2016 |
Budget 2014 |
MTEF 2014-2016 |
MTEF 2014-2016 |
|
| GDP | 7.2 | 6.2 | 6.3 | 6.3 | 5.2 | 6.3 | 6.4 |
| Inflation, average consumer prices |
2.6 | 4.2 | 4.9 | 3.5 | 5.5 | 4.0 | 4.0 |
| Current account balance (% of GDP) | -11.2 | -9.2 | -9.5 | -8.0 | -8.6 | -6.3 | -4.3 |
| Exports of goods |
2.5 | 15.0 | 10.0 | 13.5 | 10.0 | 14.5 | 15.5 |
| Imports of goods |
2.2 | 5.3 | 4.5 | 5.0 | 4.0 | 5.5 | 6.0 |
| 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | |||||
| Actual | IMF | ADB | IMF | ADB | IMF | ||||
| Oct 2012 | Apr 2013 | Oct 2012 | Apr 2013 | Oct 2013 | Oct 2013 | Oct 2013 | Oct 2013 | ||
| GDP | 7.2 | 4.0 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.8 | 4.6 | 5.5 | 5.5 |
| Inflation, average consumer prices | 2.6 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.5 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 4.0 | 4.0 |
| Current account balance (% of GDP) | -11.2 | -9.3 | -9.6 | -9.8 | -9.8 | -8.6 | -9.6 | -7.6 | -7.2 |
| Exports of goods | 2.5 | 3.2 | 7.6 | na | 8.5 | 11.1 | na | 9.3 | 9.2 |
| Imports of goods | 2.2 | 3.9 | 5.1 | na | 6.5 | 3.8 | na | 5.1 | 7.0 |
Table 3: IMF, ADB and RA Government's forecast of Armenia's main macroeconomic indicators for 2012-2014, %
|
2011
|
2012
|
2013
|
2014
|
|||||
|
|
Actual
|
IMF
|
ADB
|
Budget
|
IMF
|
ADB
|
MTEF
|
IMF
|
MTEF
|
Economic growth
|
4.7
|
3.8
|
3.8
|
4.2
|
4.0
|
4.2
|
4.5
|
4.0
|
4.8
|
Inflation (average)
|
7.7
|
4.0
|
4.1
|
4.1
|
4.2
|
4.5
|
4.3
|
4.0
|
3.9
|
Current account balance/GDP
|
11.0
|
-11.0
|
-11.2
|
-9.8
|
-9.5
|
-10.0
|
-8.9
|
-8.4
|
-7.5
|
Exports growth
|
32.6
|
8.3
|
8.0
|
13.5
|
8.3
|
11.0
|
10.5
|
6.9
|
9.0
|
Imports growth
|
14.3
|
4.9
|
4.5
|
5.2
|
3.0
|
6.0
|
6.0
|
4.2
|
5.0
|
Budget – 2012 Budget Message of the Government of Armenia, MTEF - 2012-2014 Medium-Term Expenditure Framework of the Government of Armenia
IMF forecasts of economic growth in Armenia and in neighboring countries, %*
Useful Links
Useful Links
The present Sub-section is dedicated to help our website visitors to in using online resources in a more coordinated manner and with ease. Links to websites of public bodies and agencies of Armenia are provided, together with those of international organizations, reputable scientific and educational institutions, useful informational and statistical resource sites.
- RA State Bodies and Services
- National Agencies for Development
- International Organizations and Agencies
- International Research and Educational Institutions
- International Rating Agencies
- Statistical Resources
- Other Armenian Informative Sites
RA National Assembly
http://www.parliament.am
RA Government
http://www.gov.am
RA Central Bank
http://www.cba.am
RA Customs Service
http://www.customs.am
RA Ministry of Economy
http://www.mineconomy.am
RA Ministry of Education and Science
http://www.edu.am
RA Ministry of Finance
http://www.minfin.am
RA Ministry of Health
http://www.moh.am
RA Ministry of Labour and Social Affairs
http://www.mss.am
RA Ministry of Nature Protection
http://www.mnp.am
RA Ministry of Territorial Administration
http://www.mta.gov.am
RA Ministry of Transport and Communication
http://www.mtc.am
RA National Statistical Service
http://www.armstat.am
RA State Employment Service Agency
http://www.employment.am
RA Tax Service
http://www.taxservice.am
National Agencies for Development
Armenian Development Agency
http://www.ada.am
Hayastan All-Armenian Fund
http://www.himnadram.org
Luys Foundation
http://www.luys.am
National Competitiveness Foundation of Armenia
http://www.cf.am
Small and Medium Entrepreneurship Development National Center of Armenia
http://smednc.am
International Organizations and Agencies
Asian Development Bank (ADB)
http://www.adb.org
Eurasian Economic Community (EurAsEC)
http://www.evrazes.com
European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD)
http://www.ebrd.com
European Central Bank (ECB)
http://www.ecb.int
European Commission (EC)
http://ec.europa.eu
European Union (EU)
http://europa.eu
Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO)
http://www.fao.org
German Organization for International Cooperation (GIZ)
http://www.giz.de
International Finance Corporation (IFC)
http://www.ifc.org
International Labour Organization (ILO)
http://www.ilo.org
International Monetary Fund (IMF)
http://www.imf.org
Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD)
http://www.oecd.org
United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD)
http://www.unctad.org
United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) Armenia
http://undp.am
United Nations Development Programme (UNDP)
http://www.undp.org
United Nations (UN)
http://www.un.org
United States Agency for International Development (USAID)
http://www.usaid.gov
World Bank (WB)
http://www.worldbank.org
World Health Organization (WHO)
http://www.who.int
World Trade Organization (WTO)
http://www.wto.org
International Research and Educational Institutions
Adam Smith Institute
http://www.adamsmith.org
Center for International Development (CID), Harvard University
http://www.hks.harvard.edu/centers/cid
Chatham House
http://www.chathamhouse.org
Commission on Growth and Development
http://www.growthcommission.org
Goldman School of Public Policy, UC Berkeley
http://gspp.berkeley.edu/
Harvard Kennedy School
http://www.hks.harvard.edu
Human Development Report Office (HDRO)
http://hdr.undp.org
Institute of Development Studies (IDS)
http://www.ids.ac.uk
Institution for Social and Policy Studies (ISPS), Yale University
http://isps.research.yale.edu/
London School of Economics and Political Science
http://www2.lse.ac.uk
National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)
http://www.nber.org
Woodrow Wilson School. Princeton University
http://wws.princeton.edu/
Fitch Ratings
http://www.fitchratings.com
Freedom House
http://www.freedomhouse.org
Heritage Foundation
http://www.heritage.org
Moody's Investors Service
http://www.moodys.com
Standard & Poor's
http://www.standardandpoors.com
Transparency International
http://www.transparency.org
World Economic Forum
http://www.weforum.org
Eurostat
http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu
IMF, International Financial Statistics
http://elibrary-data.imf.org
IMF, World Economic Outlook Databases
http://www.imf.org
Interstate Statistical Committee of the CIS
http://www.cisstat.com
ITC, Investment map
http://www.investmentmap.org
ITC, Trade Map
http://www.trademap.org
OECD Statistics
http://stats.oecd.org
United Nations, Commodity Trade Statistics Database
http://comtrade.un.org
United Nations, Statistics Division
http://unstats.un.org
United Nations, World Population Prospects
http://esa.un.org/wpp
World Bank, Databases on Armenia
http://databank.worldbank.org
World Bank, Doing Business
http://databank.worldbank.org
World Bank, Education Statistics
http://databank.worldbank.org
World Bank, Global Economic Monitor Database
http://databank.worldbank.org
World Bank, Millennium Development Goals
http://databank.worldbank.org
World Bank, Poverty and Inequality Database
http://databank.worldbank.org
Central Bank of Armenia, Databank
http://databank.cba.am
Georgia, National Statistics Office
http://www.geostat.ge
Armenia, National Statistical Service, Database
http://www.armstat.am
Azerbaijan, State Statistical Committee
http://www.stat.gov.az
Turkish Statistical Institute
http://www.turkstat.gov.tr
Other Armenian Informative Sites
Armenia Information Portal
http://armenia.am
Armenian Legal Information System (ARLIS)
http://www.arlis.am
Development Planning Framework
http://www.dpf.am
RA Electronic Government
https://www.e-gov.am
Development Partners Strategies
Development Partners Strategies
International organizations, Development agencies and large donors, carrying out projects and programs in a certain country, develop medium-term cooperation strategies or annual programs. Such documents are usually discussed and agreed with the government of the country, thereafter agreements, memoranda or other documents are signed. As a rule, such documents contain not only the objectives, priorities of activities of a particular organization in the country, but also the support directions and programs, estimates of socio-economic situation, reform agenda of national governments and frameworks of agreed pre-conditions.
The present Sub-section contains development agreements and cooperation strategies implemented in Armenia, activity plans and projects, viewing those as highly important in the country development and reform process.
The list of documents presented here is not full and is subject to gradual compilation. These documents, although aimed at the same overall objective, vary in terms of targeted problems and format. Those are presented per partner organizations in the following classification:
- Asian Development Bank (ADB)
- European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD)
- European Union (EU)
- International Monetary Fund (IMF)
- United Nations Development Programme (UNDP)
- United States Agency for International Development (USAID)
- World Bank (WB)
Another Subs-section contains national strategic papers on socio-economic development.
Country Partnership Strategy 2014-2018 (December 2014)
english
Country Operations Business Plan 2016–2018 (October 2015)
english
Country Operations Business Plan 2015–2017 (December 2014)
english
Country Operations Business Plan 2014-2016 (December 2013)
english
Country Operations Business Plan 2012-2013 (November 2011)
english
European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD)
Country Strategy (November 2015)
armenian
Country Strategy (March 2012)
armenian
Country Strategy (April 2009)
armenian | english
Single Support Framework for EU support to Armenia 2014-2017
english
Implementation of the ENP in Armenia: Progress in 2014 and recommendations for actions (March 2015)
english
Implementation of the ENP in Armenia: Progress in 2013 and recommendations for actions (March 2014)
english
Implementation of the ENP in Armenia: Progress in 2012 and recommendations for actions (March 2013)
english
Implementation of the ENP in Armenia: Progress in 2011 and recommendations for actions (May 2012)
english
ENPI Armenia: National Indicative Programme 2011-2013
armenian | english
ENPI Armenia: National Indicative Programme 2007-2010
english
ENP Country Strategy Paper 2007-2013
english
EU-Armenia European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP) Action Plan (November 2006)
armenian | english
EU-Armenia Partnership and Cooperation Agreement (July 1999)
armenian | english
International Monetary Fund (IMF)
IMF Country Report Armenia (November 2015)
english
IMF Country Report Armenia (March 2015)
english
IMF Country Report Armenia (March 2014)
english
IMF Country Report Armenia (July 2013)
english
IMF Country Report Armenia (February 2013)
english
IMF Country Report Armenia (June 2012)
english
Republic of Armenia: Letter of Intent, and Technical Memorandum of Understanding (May 2012)
english
United Nations Development Programme (UNDP)
Armenia-UN Development Assistance Framework 2016-2020 (July 2015)
armenian | english
Armenia-UN Development Assistance Framework 2010-2015 (2010)
armenian | english
United States Agency for International Development (USAID)
USG Country Assistance Strategy 2013-2017 (August 2013)
english
USG Country Assistance Strategy 2009-2013 (March 2009)
english
Country Partnership Strategy 2014-2017 (April 2016)
english
Country Partnership Strategy 2014-2017 (October 2013)
english
Country Partnership Strategy 2009-2012 (May 2009)
armenian | english
International Development Association Program Document (June 2009)
english
Useful Publications
Useful Publications
The present Sub-section aims at compiling and making available for our users useful and well- known publications and reports on economic and social developments and policies. In particular, it contains links to several widely known reports based on global development and cross-country comparison studies and analyses. At the same time, several national reports are presented, as well.
Armenia Economic Report 2016: Economic Integration of Displaced Syrian Persons in Armenia, EDRC, 2016
armenian | english
Armenia Economic Report 2015: Armenian-Georgian Economic Cooperation, EDRC, 2015
armenian | english
Armenia Economic Report 2014: Eurasian Integration and Trade, EDRC, 2014
armenian | english
Armenia Economic Report 2013: Human Capital and Growth Perspectives, EDRC, 2013
armenian | english
Armenia Economic Report 2011/2012: Trade Policy and Growth Sustainability, EDRC, IPRC
armenian | english
Armenia Economic Report 2010: The Necessity for Economic Diversification and Export Expansion, EDRC, RA Ministry of Economy
armenian | english
Armenia Economic Report 2009: From Crisis Toward New Development, RA Ministry of Economy
armenian | english
The Millennium Development Goals Report 2011, United Nations
english
The Millennium Development Goals Report 2010, United Nations
english
World Development Report 2012, The World Bank
english
World Development Report 2011, The World Bank
english
Global Development Horizons 2011, The World Bank
english
Trade and Development Report, 1981-2011, UNCTAD
english
Trade and Development Report, 2011, UNCTAD
english
Trade and Development Report, 2010, UNCTAD
english
Human Development Report 2011, UNDP
english
Doing Business, 2012, The World Bank
english
The Global Competitiveness Report 2011–2012, World Economic Forum
english
Transition Report 2011, European Bank for Reconstruction and Development
english
System of National Accounts, 2008, European Commission, IMF, OECD, UN, WB
english
«Government Finance Statistics Manual 2001, IMF
english
Balance of Payments Manual, 5th edition, IMF
english
Balance of Payments Manual, 6th edition, IMF
english
Monetary and Financial Statistics Manual 2000, IMF
english
Monetary and Financial Statistics, Compilation Guide 2008, IMF
english
National Strategies
National Strategies
The present Section contains main socio-economic development national strategies and programs of Armenia. They can be adopted either by the National Assembly, specific high-level Committees and Councils, Government or separate bodies and agencies within the government. The list of selected strategy documents comprises of both general, as well as sector-specific development programs and strategies.
- General Strategic Papers
- Business and Investment Environment
- Information Technology & E-Society
- Agriculture
- Tourism
- Infrastructures
- Healthcare, Social Sector & Culture
- Science & Education
Partnership and cooperation strategies implemented with international organizations can be accessed in a separate section of the present website.
RA National Security Strategy (February 2007)
armenian
RA Perspective Development Strategic Programme for 2014-2025 (March 2014)
armenian
RA Perspective Development Strategic Programme for 2012-2025 (Draft, November 2012)
armenian
RA Sustainable Development Program (October 2008)
armenian | english
RA Anticorruption Strategy (September 2015)
armenian
RA Anticorruption Strategy (2009)
armenian | english
Concept of RA Migration State Regulation Policy (November 2011)
armenian
Business and Investment Environment
SME Development Strategy for 2016-2018 (October 2015)
armenian
Concept of Investment Policy (October 2015)
armenian
RA Quality Infrastructure Reform Strategy for 2010-2020 (December 2010)
armenian
Concept of the Establishment of a Free Economic Zone Around International Airport “Zvartnots” (2008)
armenian
Concept of Reconstruction of Gyumri City of RA Shirak Marz into a Techno-City (June 2008)
armenian
Information Technology & E-Society
Concept for IT Industry Development in Armenia (August 2008)
armenian
Concept of E-Society development in RA (February 2010)
armenian
RA Strategy of Sustainable Agricultural Development for 2010-2020 (November 2010)
armenian
RA National Forest Program (July 2005)
armenian
Concept of Tourism Development in Armenia (2007)
armenian
Development Strategy of Jermuk for 2009-2012 (July 2009)
armenian
Tatev Tourism Center's Development Program (June 2009)
armenian
Armenia Transport Sector Development Strategy 2020 (November 2008)
armenian
North-South Transport Corridor Investment Program (January 2010)
armenian
RA National Program on Energy Saving and Renewable Energy (January 2007)
armenian
Healthcare, Social Sector & Culture
Children's Nutrition Improvement Strategy for 2015-2020 (September 2015)
armenian
Healthy Lifestyle Promotion Strategy (November 2014)
armenian
Child's Rights Protection Strategy for 2013-2016 (December 2012)
armenian
Maternal and Child Healthcare Strategy for 2003-2015 (August 2003)
armenian
National Immunization Program of RA (January 2010)
armenian
Pension Reform Program of RA (November 2008)
armenian
Cultural Outreach Program in Armenia (January 2009)
armenian
Consolidation of Potential of Armenian Scientists' Program (April 2009)
armenian
Strategic Program on Preschool Education Reforms for 2008-2015 and Pilot Project (March 2008)
armenian
Concept of the Development of Preliminary Professional (Craftsmanship) and Middle Professional Education (December 2008)
armenian
